Bubble Life?

Second Life has stirred up a lot of press recently. The reason for this is much less about what Second Life is, and much more about what Second Life has the potential to become. (Aside: I’m using Second Life synonymously with 3D virtual worlds in general, since that’s where the hype is focused and it’s easier to conceptualise than an abstract concept). As a result there’s a significant debate raging about the importance of Second Life. Will it be the next big thing?

I say indubitable yes. While it’s not the point I want to make in this blog post, I have to briefly touch on why I think that is the case. There are two key factors that I see that see merging together to bring Second Life to mainstream users.

1) Technological Shift

Processing power, bandwidth and input devices have all developed to a point that isn’t particularly optimal for streaming virtual worlds. While video games have done a lot to push technology in the right direction, there’s still a long way to go before many people will be able to feel immersed in the 3D environments. There’s lots happening in this space (MMOPRGs ala World of Warcraft & the PS3’s Home virtual world) and gaming will continue to push forwards with benefits flowing over. We’re also seeing some sideways shifts from gaming (the Wii’s controller for example) that will certainly have applications for Second Life.

2) Cultural Shift

Gaming also plays a factor here, but I think it’s more a consequence of web 2.0 communities and social networks driving this shift. It’s becoming progressively more acceptable to value virtual assets and experiences. The interactions that are performed on online forums, social networks and even online multiplayer games like World of Warcraft often merge into people’s normal lives. People marry after meeting online – others earn their living entirely from virtual assets. (Aside: there are various ways to conceptualise virtual assets too – it’s Digg a virtual asset? What separates it from the New York Times? What difference is there in travelling to a new island in Second Life and going on holiday on the real world? That’s for another blog post though… ) It may still be somewhat underground, but it’s not difficult to see there are massive social movements afoot. Access to information and other people has changed so quickly in the past 10 years that its implications are only now beginning to become clear.

Ok, so maybe indubitable was the wrong word. Both of these shifts could come to a halt, but history doesn’t seem to indicate they will. Technology has never stopped improving and the cultural shift is a largely consequence of the technological one.

Anyway, now that’s out of the way I can get back to the point of all this

Second Life is only in its formative years. Lots of people see the potential, but are not sure how to use it or how to position themselves to take advantage of it. I see a strong comparison with the initial .com boom – lots of investment, lots of hype, but very few users and most importantly no understanding of how to build a business around or market to, those users who do exist. If the bubble bursts so early on, it would be a huge PR disaster for the industry and could set progress back significantly. It’s something that I worry about working on the edge of virtual presence with thatsmymouse.

Hopefully the dawn of the 3D era will survive unscathed. There’s still a lot of uncertainly from the .com bubble and people in tech industries are hesitant about getting burnt. Fortunately web 2.0 is bringing something of a renaissance to social networking and information sharing that is still attracting a lot of attention. Even the largest social networks and information sites have a long way to go before they are ubiquitous in the public eye (as I result I don’t think there a problem with a second .com bubble in the foreseeable future).

Second Life bubble or no, I’m still confident that I’ll be (literally) surfing a 3D net in the next 10 years.